DISCLAIMER: All predictions offered in good faith but for entertainment purposes only. No responsibility taken. Please check official lists before placing any bets
Friday, August 14, 2015
weekend turf warrior for Sat 8/15
lots of turf action on the Feast of the Assumption, including the Arlington Millions, the Del Mar Oaks and the Fourstardave at the Spa. unfortunately can't bring you my selections, due to a family emergency back in Australia - posting this at LAX. But will edit with a recap.
Friday, August 7, 2015
Weekend Turf warrior sat. 8/8/15
In the Mabee, I see #3 Fanticola easily gaining the rail and I can't see why she can't lead all the way, holding off #9 Bilingismything (stalking) and #7 Queen of the Sands*Ire (closing). Good luck
Thursday, August 6, 2015
Weekend turf warrior preview
There are 2 turf graded stakes coming up on Saturday. Firstly, there's the 16th running of the Waya at SAR, elevated to Graded status this year, and worth 200K. This race for fillies and mares was run four times during the 1990’s – twice at 1 3/8 miles (1993-94) and twice at 1 5/8 miles (1996-96) – and was reinstituted in 2003 at 1 ½ miles on the grass. The race is named for champion mare who distinguished herself both in her native France and in the United States. In 1978, after having won multiple stakes in Europe, she came to America and won six of nine starts including victories over males in the Grade 1 Man o’ War and the Grade 1 Turf Classic. The following year she won four straight stakes in New York and California, including the Top Flight in her first-ever appearance on dirt, and was voted Champion Older Female. later that day, there's Then there's the John C. Mabee Handicap at DMR. The Mabee is run on the turf for fillies and mares, age three or older, at a distance of one and one-eighth miles. Downgraded to a Grade II stakes in 2010, the John C. Mabee Handicap currently offers a purse of $250,000. Part of the Breeders' Cup Challenge series, the winner of the 2010 race automatically qualifies for the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf. The race is named in honor of John C. Mabee (1921-2002), a three-time winner of the Eclipse Award for Outstanding Breeder as owner of Golden Eagle Farm and someone the New York Times Company's subsidiary About.com calls "a California racing icon." Through 2001 the race was known as the Ramona Handicap, in honor of Ramona, California where Mabee's breeding farm was located, and as the John C. Mabee Ramona Handicap in 2002. It was first run in 1945 on dirt at a distance of one mile (8 furlongs), it was not contested again until 1959 when the distance was set at its current 1 1⁄8 miles (9 furlongs). It was . It was run in two divisions in 1965, 1966, 1969 and was switched to the turf course in 1970. In winning the 1971 race, Street Dancer set a new Del Mar course record then won again in 1972, breaking her own record. Saturday is also Whitney day at Saratoga. Friday sees the 31st running of the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame Stakes a turf route for 3YO. The NMR was incorporated in historic Saratoga Springs, New York, in 1950 and moved to its present site on Union Avenue, across the street from Saratoga Race Course, in 1955. The Hall of Fame was created to recognize and honor deserving horses, jockeys, and trainers. Known as the Gallant Man from its first running in 1985 until 1991, the turf race for 3-year-olds was run at 1 1/8 miles until 1995. In 1996-97, it was run at 1 1/16 miles, and returned to 1 1/8 miles from 1998 until 2010. From 2011, it was again carded at 1 1/16 miles. Update: FYI, the winner was Takeover Target which brings back fond memories of the Australian stakes horse trained by Queanbeyan taxi driver Joe Janiak (and coincidentally, euthanized after a serious paddock injury last month). that's one for the Twilight Zone
Saturday, August 1, 2015
Weekend turf warrior for 8/1/15
Happy horses' birthday Down Under. Obviously all eyes are on Monmouth tomorrow and the return of American Pharoah in the Haskell, but today there's one graded turf stakes, the Bowling Green at Saratoga where showers are forecast (Fun fact: the Jim Dandy for 3 yo is also set down for today, is named for a 100-1 long shot who beat a triple crown winner in the Travers back in the day). In the intermediate distance Gr 2 Bowling Green for 4up, around 3 turns of the tight inner turf course, there appears to be plenty of speed and I envisage #2 and #4 leading, with #2 leading with 3, 6 and 8 up stalking representing the best chances. I'll make it the Phipps Stable's #3 Imagining (Johnny V up, for Shug) from #8 Dramedy and #2 War Dancer. RESULT: #3 got the show. was about 5/2. here's the Haskell. What a horse.
Saturday, July 25, 2015
Weekend turf warrior for 7/25/15
It was opening day at Saratoga yesterday and the Gr 2 Lake George (1&1/16th) for 3f was the turf feature, won by Mrs McDougal for Chad Brown (Irad Ortiz up). the only turf graded stakes today is the Diana Stakes. Named for the mythological goddess Diana (why??) and inaugurated in 1939, it is open to F&M willing to race the one and one-eighth miles on the turf. The race is a Grade I with a current purse of $500,000. The Diana is part of the Breeders' Cup Challenge series that gives the winner of the Diana Stakes an automatica berth in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf. it's a classy field of 7, and I'm leaning towards #2 Stephanie's Kitten, to make it 2-2 for the Brown/Ortiz combo by going one better this year after hitting the board the last 2 years. The pace should be genuine with the chalk #1 Tepin, stable mate #3 Kitten's Queen, and turf sophomore My Miss Sophia all liking to go forward. This should suit "Steph" who made up 4L in the stretch for Frankie Dettori last year to just miss by a neck. now 6, she seems to be racing just as well if not better than last year. While it would not surprise for any of the 7 to get up, I'm putting in #1Tepin and #4Hard not To Like as the main dangers. RESULT:I wasn't far off. #4Hard not To Like beat #1Tepin but with #2 Stephanie's Kitten unplaced. As I envisaged, 1,3,6 did go forward VERY fast running the first 3/4 mile in 70:15, more than 2 seconds faster than average, thereby setting up a new SAR track record for 9f (smashing the old one set in the 2007 Baruch). Closers had to make a lot of ground, which HNTL managed to do (just), making up an incredible 15L in the last 3f [less than 5% can make up even 5L], while SK which started 5/4 chalk needed to make up 17L from there but could only manage 12. In retrospect, HNTL was just as likely to do this as SK and wasn't carrying the burden of missing out the past 2 years, so my tip was a bit careless. here's the replay of the 2015 Diana
Saturday, July 18, 2015
Weekend Turf Warrior for Sat 7/18/15
Del Mar opened yesterday marking what some call, like the MLB sp the All Star Game, the start of the "Second Season" with SAR opening next Friday. Today's highlight is the $400,000 Gr 1 Eddie Read (he was the former Director of Publicity), 1&1/8 mi out of the infield chute. It's R4 at 6.45 pm ET. A field of 7, with the main 2 chances on paper being #3 Midnight Transfer & #7 Finnegans Wake. Like Russell Hudak, again the DMR morning line maker this summer, I have them both around 2/1. But while I think #3 has slightly better credentials on paper, he could potentially duel with the #5 which would play into the hands of #7 Finnegans Wake. #2,4 also have some chance while you can eliminate #1 and #6. {My line, framed to 125% is: #1, 20/1; #2 6/1; #3 2/1; #4 10/1; #5 6/1; #6 20/1; #7 3/2}. The other turf race today is the 78th running of the Kent Stakes at Delaware Park (where it's Gr 1 Delaware Hcp day), also 1&1/8 mi out of an infield chute, and tomorrow it's the San Clemente for 3 f, 1 mile around DMR's 7 furlong "Jimmy Durante" turf course (no chute). In the San Clemente, my selection is #7 Her Emmenency. i have her 3/1 (same as ML). while chalk #2 Sunset Glow could wire it, Her Emmencnecy ran 2nd in the Debutaante here last October, is in form and has been finishing off her races well.
Saturday, July 11, 2015
Weekend Turf Warrior for Sat. 7/11/15
6 graded turf stakes today, all Gr 3, with 4 of them at Arlington as preps for Millions day next month, and the Robt Dick Mem at DEL and the Parx Dash, featuring Power Alert*AUS. At Arlington it's a weak field with no obvious pace in the American Derby. The fav World Approval is the only entry that's Gr S placed and is in form.RESULT. The fav won narrowly on a good track, in slow time The Arlington Hcp (Gr3, 3up, 1&3/8mi) has a strong field with several classy entries but again not a lot of pace. #4 Pizza Man, winner of last year's Stars & Stripes, is in form again this summer and should race forward and could be too strong. However, he's also entered in the Stars & Stripes, where he's also a chance, as of 7 a.m. so need to await scratchings. If he doesn't run in the Arlington, would have to go with the fav, the Euro import #8 Triple Threat that won at MTH at first US start, but pace won't suit today.RESULT:in fact both were scratched. Quiet Word won at 5/1 in a field of 7 If #2Pizza Man doesn't run in the S&S, #5 Xtra Luck looks to be well placed.RESULT: Pizza Man (9/10 fav) won his 2nd S&S on a good surface Next weekend the highlight is the Gr 1 Eddie Read at DMR on Saturday, as well as the Gr 2 San Clemente there Sunday. Saturday there is also the Gr 3 Kent at DEL. Here's last year's Eddie Read, won gamely by #6 Tom's Tribute stalking the very fast pace set by #4 Horizontally Speaking
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