Road to 2011 KY Derby: week 1

The KY Derby will be the number 1 US racing topic for the next 3 months so i will jump on the band wagon. Firstly, to line up at the starting gate for Race 11 at Churchill Downs at around 6.30 pm on May 7th, you qualify based on prize money in graded races at 2 and 3. the cutoff last year was approx $250K. Here are the main qulifying races ahead (admittedly a couple have already been run, so this not really week 1).

KY Derby Trends: The main trend to look at is the fact that all the winners between 1997 and 2008 were male horses. In 2009there was a big shock when a 51/1 filly won the race proving that fillies can win the race, although they do not have a good record in the race generally. Another of the interesting Kentucky Derby trends is the importance of a good run last time out. Between 1997 and 2010 all but two of the Kentucky Derby winners had finished either first or second last time out. When looking for a Kentucky Derby tip it is important to bear in mind the usual odds of a Kentucky Derby winner. Between 1997 and 2010 four of the favourites for the race won and seven of the thirteen winners were amongst the favourites. This means that it is normally best to concentrate on the fancied horses rather than trying to pick one at a massive price in the Kentucky Derby odds.
Tips From Prep Races: Some of the strongest trends for the Kentucky Derby come from looking at the preparation races that the past winners have taken in.
Year - Winner - Previous Race - Finishing Position
2010 Super Saver Arkansas Derby 2nd
2009 Mine That Bird Sunland Derby 4th
2008 Big Brown Florida Derby 1st
2007 Street Sense Toyota Blue Grass Stakes 2nd
2006 Barbaro Florida Derby 1st
2005 Giacomo Santa Anita Derby 4th
2004 Smarty Jones Arkansas Derby 1st
2003 Funny Cide Wood Memorial Stakes 2nd
2002 War Emblem Illinois Derby 1st
2001 Monarchos Florida Derby 1st
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus Wood Memorial Stakes 1st
1999 Charismatic Coolmore Lexington Stakes 1st
1998 Real Quiet Santa Anita Derby 2nd
1997 Silver Charm Santa Anita Derby 2nd
Between 1997 and 2010 twelve of the fourteen winners had come either first or second last start. Seven of them won last time out and five of them were runner up on their previous start. The only Kentucky Derby winners not to finish in the first two on their previous starts both won at over 50/1 so if you are backing a horse under 50/1 that did not finish in the top two last time out think again. The Florida Derby (April 3) and the Santa Anita Derby (April 9) seem to be the most popular prep races. Three Kentucky Derby winners from the last fourteen ran in the Florida Derby before winning the Kentucky Derby, all of which had won the race. Three winners had also run in the Santa Anita, but none of them were winners. Two of the Kentucky Derby winners had finished second in the race and one had finished fourth. This suggests it is best to watch out for Florida Derby winners and horses that ran well without winning the Santa Anita Derby. Calvin Borel rode 3 of the last 4. This year that criteria throws up two at nice Kentucky Derby Odds. The Breeders Cup juvenile is over-rated; since 2000, 4 BCJ winners have run in following year's Derby & only 1 (Street Sense 2007) won

The 2010 KY Derby runners were:
1. Lookin At Lucky (Garrett Gomez)
2. Ice Box (Jose Lezcano)
3. Noble's Promise (Willie Martinez)
4. Super Saver (Calvin Borel)
5. Line of David (Rafael Bejarano)
6. Stately Victor (Alan Garcia)
7. American Lion (David Flores)
8. Dean's Kitten (Robby Albarado)
9. Make Music for Me (Joel Rosario)
10. Paddy O'Prado (Kent Desormeaux)
11. Devil May Care (John Velazquez)
12. Conveyance (Martin Garcia)
13. Jackson Bend (Mike Smith)
14. Mission Impazible (Rajiv Maragh)
15. Discreetly Mine (Javier Castellano)
16. Awesome Act (Julien Leparoux)
17. Dublin (Terry Thompson)
18. Backtalk (Miguel Mena)
19. Homeboykris (Ramon Dominguez)
20. Sidney's Candy (Joe Talamo)

Here are the current Top 20 contenders accoring to Mike Watchmaker (rated to 120%). This list will oviously change.


In the Gp 3 Holy Bull on Sunday 1/30 my selection was Gourmet Dinner, rated 2/1 (bet 3.3u) . SP was $3.9. He ran OK for 3rd. Like last year (Winslow Homer), the winner Dial In was having first stakes start. Out of last year's Holy Bull, Jackson Bend (2nd) and Homeboykris (upl) made the KYD field.Bal: 5:1-1-1 .20/.60; win: out 17.8, in 4.2, bal-13.6
Dialed In

Here are my first ratings (base rtg: Jan/Feb 104; Mar/apr 106; Gr 2: -1, Gr 3 -2, NG, -3; lim 110 lbs; margins: approx 3pts/L). KY Wiiner will earn 124
Dialed In 108 (1st HolyBull, 1/30)
Sweet Ducky 106.5 (2nd HolyBull, 1/30)
Gourmet Dinner 106.5 (3rd Holy Bull, 1/30)
Mucho Macho Man 93.5(4th Holy Bull, 1/30)