RTKD 11 Update

Most of the major lead up races have been run, and it is wide open after another weekend of boilovers. Not sure how good my ratings are; I have Brilliant Speed & Toby's Corner equal first, with only 2.5L separating my Top 20. Joe Drape, NY Times answer to Max Presnell released his Top 10 on Monday. All but two (Mucho Mucho Man & Jaycito) are on my Top 20 list. His top 3 are Dialed In, Toby's Corner & MMM. Interestingly he overlooked the placegetters from the Bluegrass, mainly because of the surface (they have performed best on the synthetic or the grass). However, in 2007 Street Sense exited 2nd in Bluegrass and won KYD next start (altho he had won BCJ).

Back on Feb 2, I reveiwed the recent history of the KYD, and aside from the Cal Boo-rail factor, you are looking for a favored horse that ran 1st or 2nd at last start, esp Florida Derby, SA Derby and to a lesser extent AS Derby. i.e Dialed In won FLA Dby closing slowly, Comma To The Top, an early choice and courageous 2nd SA Derby, Midnight Interlude 1st SA Derby but didn't race at 2, which is rare in a KY Dby winner, and Shackleford 2nd (hd) FLA Dby, plus Archarcharch and the closing bridesmaid Nehro (sounds like Lonhro) both out of the AS Derby.

I will look at the breeding at another update

Archarcharch & Nehro


Brilliant Speed



RTKYD '11 Top 20 -DRF poll#
1. Brilliant Speed (18/1)119, closed well to just get up, 1st Bluegrass (syn) KEE 4/19 (Rosario/Albertrani)
2. Toby's Corner(-) [119]; 3rd [100] Gotham 3/5, then won Wood Mem [119] 4/9 with Unc Mo 3rd. knifed through traffic from the back despite slow pace to win Wood but mediocre Beyer...as with almost all of these preps.
3. Twinspired 119-, 2nd Bluegrass (syn) KEE 4/19 hit lead with 200 to go but then outfinsihed, probably not a good sign (?fitter)
4. king Congie 119-; closed well to just miss, 3rd Bluegrass (syn) KEE 4/19
5. Archarcharch 118; won AS Dby (25/1) after 96 for 3rd Rebel 8.5f OP 3/19 and 1st Southwest 2/21 [?form]
6. Midnight Interlude-6 [118]; jumps from maiden winner to SA Derby victor 4/9; didn't race at 2, which is rare in a KY Dby winner
7. Dialed In(16)-3 [118]; 1st Holy Bull FG 1/30 [108]-late closer at only 2nd race start, then won FLA Dby 4/2/11 [118] closing slowly
8. Arthur's Tale [118]; 2nd Wood Mem at 50/1, 4/9 (Unc Mo 3rd)
9. Comma To The Top-13 [118']; upl 99 El Camino Real GG 2/12. bumping duel with Silver Medallion, then courageous 2nd SA Derby 4/14/11 [118']
10. Shackleford-16 (-) [118']; 2nd (hd) FLA Dby 4/2/11 [118]

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11. Pants On Fire-10 (24/3/0.75;17-b) 116 (Bxx) 1st La. Dby 3/26 6-1, (Napravnik/Breen) stalked, hit lead str but seemed to change leads a lot and not run out very strongly; that foll. upl (87,B81) Risen Star (2/19, Mucho Macho Man) after 108 (B82)2nd Lecomte (1/22)-led all the way until the post.
12. Nehro-13 [115]; 106+10-1=115 2nd AS Dby 4/16 closing, foll 115 Bxx 2nd La. Dby 3/26 36-1, out of MSpW: ran on well
13. Uncle Mo-2 (8/2.2/0.5) 115 1st Timely Writer-NG GP 3/12: omnifig, killed 'em then 3rd Wood when 1-9 on (?had GI infection). Great 2yo but has the weakest KYD pedigree since Count Fleet in 1943
14. Joe Vann [114] won ILL Dby at Hawthorne for Pletcher, 4/9/11
15. Soldat-8 (26/2.47/0.69) 113;B96 1st Fountain of Youth 2/26: wired, did repel 2 incl THAS, then disappointing upl Fla Dby
16. Animal Kingdom-9 ch. (8/1.67/0.5-1h)114;bxx 1st Spiral TP 3/26: gritty win
17. Silver Medallion-b. (10/2.33/.60) 113 1st El Camino Real GG 2/12; stong effort (bt Comma TT Top)
18. Premier Pegasus-2 (30/3.62/0.93) 112;B96 1st San Felipe SA 8.5f 3/12; 103(B96)3rd San Vincente 2/20
19. Mr Commons [111] 3rd SA Derby 4/14/11
20. The Factor-3,gr(28/2.73/0.75) [111]; 1st Rebel 8.5f OP, dblfig,wired it, romped in; foll 111 (B103) 1st San Vincente 7f 2/20. (Baffert/M.Garcia)then odds on finished 7th, 8.75L back [118-26=92] AS dby 4/17;