Excelsior Stakes prediction

Staying local today where it's fine and sunny but cold, for the 101st running of the time honored Gr 3 Excelsior Handicap over 1&1/8 mi (1800m) on the inner track at AQU. A field of 7, I have  the fav #2 Last Gunfighter (Rajiv Maragh up for Chad Brown) marginally ahead of #4 Mordi's Magic (ML 4/1) and #1 Colizeo (5/1) as the only other one with a live chance. LGF is going for 5 in a row, but there are some risks with him: coming off a 9 week break though Brown has a 28% SR with horses resuming after a let up, this is his first try at Graded Stakes level and first try beyond 1700. But I see him getting the garden seat behind 1 & 6 and then getting a split at the top of the stretch and being too strong down the lane.