Florida Derby/Appleton prediction

Easter Saturday and the Derby takes me back to the old days of the AJC & Royal Randwick. But now we are focusing on GP and the Florida Derby. There's also the gr 3 Appleton over the mile on the turf on the card to remind us of the "Donny". In the Derby, where #4 Pontiff would have to be the omen bet,  I'm going for #6 Orb (Johnny V up, for Shug McGaughey) the 3rd fav on the ML at 3/1,   over Itsmyluckday and the juvenile champ Shanghai Bobby (who has to finish 1-2 to make the Ky Derby). In the Appleton, where there is a ton of speed on, the top selection on ability and form is #4 Joes  Blazing Aaron, but i'm not sure he will be suited 2nd up at this distance, so I am going for #3 Za Approval, with Lezcano back on for Christophe Clement, up in class and 2nd up but  loves the GP turf and the distance and can take a sit, currently 7/2.