CD R9 predicition - River City Hcp

It's another quiet Saturday graded stakes-wise, prior to the Holiday weekend next week. Main race today nationally is the River City over 9F on the turf. A big field but low quality and also not much early pace on (with #3,11,12 most likely to go forward early and #2,6,10,14 to be also prominent by the 2nd call). i think 1,4,5,9, and 12 are the main chances with not much between 1&4. I'm leaning towards #4 Keep Up the defending champion. Won;t be anyhting like 30/1 this year, but is in form and a hot jockey up (first ride) but he does tend to get back typically so could have traffic problems in this big field. he was only 2L of the pace at the 1/2 mile when he won last start, so hopefully they ride him like that today. He loves this course and distance. They had quite a lot of rain in Louisville this week but fine yesterday and today's forecast the same. Keep Up doesn't have much exposed wet form and is by Unbrideld's Song but he has won on the main track if they take it off. it turned out to be a good track, but as feared Keep Up did run into traffic problems and got squeezed bw horses at top of stretch and didn;t go on with it. The winner sat on the outside, 3w, but kept out of trouble