Friday, February 18, 2011

RTKYD'11 Week 4

Following failures by top early contenders Comma to the Top and Tapizar last weekend, the Grade 3 Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds (New Orleans) takes on tremendous significance on the RTKYD11 tomorrow. It is really the only RTD race being run this weekend. From my Top 20 list, Jutsin Phillip & Mucho Macho man are running. Justin Phillip disappointed badly when favored in the Grade 3 LeComte Stakes last month but with the blinkers off tomorrow (worn for last race and only that race) he has the potential to run much better. Considering that LeComte winner Wilkinson was been beaten by Justin Phillip handily prior to the LeComte, JP can be considered a huge chance to bounce back to winners list in the Risen Star with a repeat of his January 1 effort. Mucho Macho Man finished second in both the Grade 2 Nashua Stakes and Grade 2 Remsen Stakes last fall then tired to fourth after leading early in the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes three weeks ago. while it would be great for his young trainer to do well after all er porblmes, he is hard to have. I will have 3 units on Justin.

Of the other runners in the Risen Star, Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes winner Santiva makes his three-year-old debut and first start in nearly three months but leads the field in terms of graded stakes winning credentials and deserves a good deal of respect. Grade 3 Bourbon Stakes winner Rogue Romance returns from a similar layoff, last seen finishing third in his first try on the main track in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Machen enters the race with a perfect two-for-two record and could be up to the task, while recent Jean Lafitte Stakes winner Decisive Moment certainly fits at this level. LeComte runner-up Pants on Fire will likely be trying for the lead from the start, as usual, and could be a factor right down to the wire once again. LeComte third-place finisher Action Ready hopes to step up to the task at hand, as does recent maiden winner Sorgho. Liondrive rounds out the field.

Post-script:
Justin Philip: bombed again. he will be cut. MMM bounced back for Kathy Ritko .
Bal: 7:1-1-1 .14/.42; win: out 23.8, in 4.2, bal-19.6

RS:MUCHO MACHO MAN; SANTIVA;ROGUE ROMANCE 
SV: THE FACTOR SWAY AWAY PREMIER PEGASUS
SW: ARCHARCHARCH J P'S GUSTO ELITE ALEX 
Physically, Archarcharch resembles his sire. He appears to have a strong top line and very powerful shoulder, which is typical of the Kris S. sire line. He is balanced by a long, strong hip and hind end that is not overly muscular. Archarcharch has a smooth, long-reaching gait with high leg action. His mid pack running style and stamina oriented pedigree portend that he could be a legitimate challenger in his next test, the Rebel Stakes scheduled for March 19, the day after Archarcharch’s physical birthday


Jan/Feb 104; Mar/apr 106; May/Jun 108. Gr 2: -1, Gr 3 -2, NG, -3; lim 110 lbs; margins: approx 3pts/L). KY Wiiner will earn 124
RTKYD
11 Top 20
Silver Medallion 113 Ist El Camino Real GG 2/12; stong effort to upset Comma TT Top
Anthony's Cross 111 1st Lewis SA 2/12 turned tables on Tapizar after 3rd Sham [78.5]
Jakesam 108.5 2nd El Camino Real GG 2/12, tried to wire it
Brethren 108 (1st Davis TAM 2/12)-1/2 bro. Super Saver, stalked, v. impressive (Pletcher/Dominguez)
Dialed In 08 (1st HolyBull FG 1/30)-late closer at only 2nd race start
Wilkinson 108 (1st Lecomte 1/22)-closed determinedly, but only got a low Beyer
Riveting Reason 108 (2nd Lewis, 2/12)-tried hard
Pants On Fire 108 (2nd Lecomte 1/22)-led all the way until the post
Sweet Ducky 106.5 (2nd HolyBull FG 1/30)-battled on at odds
Gourmet Dinner 106.5 (3rd Holy Bull, 1/30)-only battled on
Positive Response 103 3rd El Camino Real GG 2/12. fair effort
Too Expensive 99 (2nd Davis TAM 2/12)
Comma To The Top 99 upl El Camino Real GG 2/12. bumping duel with Silver Medallion
Quail Hill 94 (3rd Lewis SA 2/12)
Clubhouse Ride 94 (2nd Sham, 1/15) no match but clear 2nd
Tapizar 93.5 upl Lewis (refused to settle) after 1st Sham, 1/15 [110]
Mucho Macho Man 93.5(4th Holy Bull, 1/30)-bumped start, gave way
Watch Me 91.5 (3rd Davis TAM 2/12)
Action Ready 91.5(3rd Lecomte 1/22)-weakened
Justin Philip 64(last Lecomte 1/22)-even money fav came up empty but blinkers on first time

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