Strub stakes predicition

Hello again and happy new year! I'm back from a short vaca Down Under for another season. Didn't get to the races while I was there but did sit on the beach and managed to dodge the "polar pig". This year i am going to focus on Graded Stakes dirt routes for older horses. These seem to be the most predictable and often times won by horses on the pace at the 2nd call. i'm planning to avoid the Ky Derby hype over the next 3-4 months, but will probably diversify if the Breeders Cup people put on another fanatsy 'capping event (I won my league in 2013, even with 2 picks not registering, mainly thanks to Mucho Mucho Man in the BC Classic. MMM is back tomorrow in the Sunshine Millions at GP but this isn;t graded). And I'm old school and try to just pick the winner of a race. So I'm playing the 67th running of the Strub (4yo, Gr 2) at SA over the 8.5 flgs around 2 turns, starting mid stretch, on the main track at SA. [This race used to be called the San Fernando. The Strub used to be over the same course and dist in Feb but the duplication has been eliminated; Charles Strub was the father of Santa Anita, so his name lives on].

Anyway back to the race, which has attracted a typical field of 8 but it looks to lack early speed making it a bit tricky to pick. My selection is the M/L chalk, Jerry Hollendorfer's #6 Hear the Ghost (Corey Nakatini up). I expect him to race fwd and hopefully have better lcuk this time. Gr 2 winner at 3, he has won at SA and over the distance. Some good judges thought his effort L/S to place in the Gr 3 Native Diver over 9f at BHP was a little disappointing. but I thought he had a pretty tough run early, trapped 4 wide on the clubhouse turn then traveling bw horses and i thought he was putting in late. See what you think...(he's #7) i don't think he took any harm from this, and he's trained on. The winner Blueskiesnrainbows certainly had it easier in fromt. For the minors, I have 2,3,4,5. i don't give 1,7,8 much chance