Mon 2/17 (President's day) - selection for South West stakes

The Gr 3 SW Stakes tomorrow is Round 3 of the SHOWdown and goes off at a bit after 6pm EST. It's a full field of 12 to face the starter over 8.5f on the dirt at OP. It will be important to check the weather down there before betting - could be rain around. There are a couple of horses with proven 2yo ability such as Strong Mandate and Ride On Curlin, but my selection is #4, Louies Flower. They have him 12/1 in the ML but I expect he'll start shorter. He's coming off a 2 month lay off foll a last start win in a 250K stakes in December at the end of his 2yo season, where he just hang on over a mile, but he's well bred and looks like he can get a middle distance. Also in his favor, he is proven first up, loves the dirt, Quinones/Calhoun is a good combo. I see him going fwd from gate 4, maybe getting the 1:1 sit, in a race where there appears to be plenty of pace. My concern is that he has not been seen on the track for 2 weeks so I hope there aren't any fitness concerns as he embarks on his 3yo career. coincidentally he's Dan Illman's pick in the DRF SW video preview. That was the kiss of death. Louies Flower didn't have a happy trip: pulled hard, then racing tight between horses along the back stretch, and turned it up before the far turn, running last