Lessons from SHOWdown - Part 1

So in the end after 19 rounds I hit the board 10 times, to finish out of the prizes, but in the top 15% of >2000 players. Not bad for a P/T amateur. {BTW no one hit all 19; the winner hit in 17, next in 16, then a lot of 15's}. This contest was fun even though not profitable (finished with a bank of -$110 on $380 invested) and after the Triple Crown i look froward to the BC Challenge and defending my title. what have i learnt about playing these early season 3yo "milers"? (#1). Ability (CLASS & SPEED): they have to be able to run. if they have not won or placed in a Gr Stakes or won a rich LR/unrest. stakes already they can be eliminated [Using BSF's, as these prep races pars are typically 95-105, if they haven't already run 85 or higher they can be safely eliminated as unlikely to win]. This will quickly eliminate about 1/3 starters or 3-4 from the average field of 10-12 runners. Breeding and dosage will be considered in Part III. (#2). Capability (FORM): need to be fit and in form. But rare for them to have had a long lay off or not had recent works. However, form is important - if Last 3 starts >7 AND last start off the board AND well beaten (or returned a BSF of <85, eliminate (#3). Suitability (PACE): eliminate if drawn out wide (PP 7 or worse) OR not a top 25 jockey. also eliminate if untried or poor SR (<25%) on the surface. After these 3 steps, we had reduced more than 200 starters to about 60 of whom 13 won (nearly 25%) and 38 (60%) hit the board. Pace is also important, especially in the 14 dirt races, especially if the early pace is slow. Give a bonus when the EPS score is 4-7. in the synthetic races, the pace is usually slower but like turf closers are still favored. In Part II, i will reveal version 2.1 of my system