Road to the Derby tomorrow: LeComte Stks, FG R11, 6:24 ET

The Grade 3, $200,000 LeComte Stakes, a dirt route for 3yo over 1 mile & 70 yds at the Fairgrounds. The race is named for one of the best horses in the early days of “Crescent City” racing (in the 1850’s) who was by the great sire Boston out of the brilliant Reel, making him a half brother to the other famous horse of the day and his rival, Lexington.

This is a very weak field in my opinion, prone for an upset. I don't like any of them, though I agree with the experts that the 3/1 chalk #11 Eagle from the Neil Howard barn, Brian Hernandez jnr. up, has the best credentials. But i'd be wanting more like 10/1 to play him. Based on the morning line, I think #1, 3 or 7 offer better value. According to Ellis Starr, National Racing Analyst for Equibase, this year's renewal of the LeComte gives us a preview of some aspiring three year olds on the road to both the Louisiana Derby and the Kentucky Derby. (I think "aspiring" is the nicest thing you can say about many of these. it's one of the weakest fields I've seen in these Derby preps. you wonder what some of the connections are thinking entering them). Eagle had traffic trouble early in the stretch before finishing fast for third place last fall in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes behind recent Jerome Stakes winner El Kabeir. Mr Starr goes on to say that Eagle made a winning debut last summer at Ellis Park at five furlongs, a distance he really had no business winning at based on his breeding. A son of Candy Ride out of a Mineshaft mare, Eagle stretched out to a mile around one turn for his second start, finishing second. In his next race, Eagle improved again when trying two turns for the first time, winning by one and three-quarter lengths with a then career best 87 Equibase® Speed Figure ( a Beyer of only 78). Next seen in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes in late November, Eagle was third on the turn but had to wait for room to run and when he finally had a chance to rally the winner and runner-up were too far in front. Nevertheless, Eagle tried valiantly and was beaten just three-quarters of a length at the wire. With a 98 figure earned in that effort tied for the best figure any horse in the LeComte Stakes field has ever earned (equated to a Beyer of 93) and likely to better that as a more mature three-year-old, Eagle should stamp himself as a strong early favorite for the big stakes to come on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. However, in P.A.P's humble opinion, being drawn outside in a field of 11 is a distinct disadvantage here. it's a pretty short run to the club house turn and he's is not known for a lot of early speed. But I suspect Hernandez will try and use him up early to make the lead rather than dropping him back, and fortunately there's not a lot of speed inside him. In such a weak field I think an upset is a real possibility, and I'd be looking to 1,3 and 7 as the nice overlays in that case.