Thursday, June 11, 2015

Shoemaker Mile prediction

The race of the day Saturday is the Gr1 $400K Shoemaker Mile, around 2 turns on the turf at Santa Anita. Only a field of 5 makes it tricky, as these races are often devoid of pace. #1 Winning Prize and #4 Seek Again are the only entrants to have won at Gr1. Despite the small field, i'm wondering if #1(blinkers ON) and chalk #3 will duel, setting it up for Juddmonte Farms' #4 Seek Again, 4/1 on the M/L from the Bill Mott yard, Jose Lezcano up, and they are a hot combo. Former Brazilian HOTY #5 Bal a Bali who won at his first US start and is 13-for-12 career wise is the obvious danger. Fun Fact: Hall-of-Famer "The Shoe", who died in 2003, won eleven Triple Crown races during his career, spanning four different decades, but the Crown itself eluded him. RESULT: The race played out as it appeared on paper, with 1&3 setting a very fast pace up front (first 6f in 70:0) but it was #2 Talco who closed best, covering the last 2f in 24:0 to beat #3, with #4Seek Again motoring home to just grab 3rd on the line, covering the last 2f in 24:2 paying an incredible $5.40 for the show when there were so few runners. The fav Bal a Bali finished last, easing very late in the betting . in the other turf races today, King Kreesa repeated his 2013 win in the Gr 3 Poker at Bel (one turn mile on the Widener track) wiring it in a very fast 93:2, while Prado's Sweet Ride beat the other 3f in a slow Gr3 Regret at CD (2 turn, 1&1/8mi) in 1.51:4. On the dirt, in the gr 1 Stephen Foster at CD, Noble Bird held off 9/5 fav Lea, with Hoppertunity 3rd, while odds-on fav Beholder easily won the Gr 2 Adoration at SA.

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