American Handicap prediction

Like everyone, pretty shocked/disappointed with Orb's poor performance in the Preakness last week. Seemed flat and/or not suited by the inside draw and didn't like racing tight. Anyway on to the American Handicap at Hollywood Park today (R3, 2pm ET, sunny 70 deg), for 3&up over a mile on the turf (firm, rail out 5m), and the topweight #2 Obviously (Talamo up, for Mike Mitchell, carrying only 121 lb or 55kg on a 114 lb or 52 kg minimum) looks to be the obvious winner :) but I expect he's likely to start much shorter than the $1.80 of the morning line. He's the class horse in the field of six, running 3rd in BC Mile last November, and fired a bullet last Friday morning. Expect him jump out to the lead and control the pace with not that much obvious speed opposition, and looks suited here. Some negatives: 2nd up of a 6 month spell, although fired the bullet last Friday morning; although loves the turf is 0-2 at Hollywood; Beyers are decelerating (105, 103, 99). I have #5 Racing Aptitude and #6 Drill in for the exacta/trifecta. PANNED OUT EXACTLY AS PREDICTED [EXCEPT FOR THE EXOTICS] - NO WISE DAN OR ANIMAL KINGDOM TO RUN OBVIOUSLY DOWN THIS TIME. STARTED 5/2 ON, ALSO AS EXPECTED.