DISCLAIMER: All predictions offered in good faith but for entertainment purposes only. No responsibility taken. Please check official lists before placing any bets
Saturday, December 14, 2013
Hollywood R7 - Native Diver S. prediction
Final graded stakes at Hollywood today after 75 yrs. Kind of sad, especially for US-bound Aussies who are used to flying in over the track and seeing the works as QF 107 arrives from Sydney at LAX around 6 am. I believe they are building a replacement track at Pomona for 2014. Anyway, feature race today is the Gr1 CashCall Futurity (no longer on the path to the Derby), but the dirt route is the Gr3 Native Diver over 9 furlongs. Last year's Native Diver was won by the long odds-on Game On Dude, bouncing back gamely from his BC defeat (see video). No such stars in this year's renewal, but my selection from the field of 9 is Drill, for the successful Baffert/Smith combo. He loves the AWT, has won here, is fit and working well and should be suited as he's generally a closer and a genuine pace is expected as #1,3,8 all like to go forward. Negatives are he hasn't won for 18 months, not in the best form lately, and never won beyond a mile. But still looks a good play to me at 8/1 on the ML. I would including #4,8,9 for the exotics.
The result was 1-9-8-5, so my 4-5-8-9 box was close; but I had left out #1 Blueskiesnrainbows, which went straight to the lead like "the Dude" did last year and wired it. He loves the course and I also under-rated his form - not won any Gr Stks, but has been prominent in several recently - and his team (Hollendorfer supplied the trifecta), and has been working on the surface while Drill had not. So I should have included him.
FYI Native Diver won 34 stakes races in the 1960's, including the Hollywood Gold Cup 3 times. He was the seventh racing millionaire, and was the first California-bred to earn a million dollars. Also an intersting feature on him.
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