Thursday, May 1, 2014

KY Oaks Day tomorrow

#13 Untapable is the short priced fav 4/5 in the morning line in the Oaks over 1&1/8 mile on the main track at CD tomorrow, race 11 of 12, post time 5.49 PM ET. There is no doubting her ability and the only horse in the field to get a Beyer above 100 (in fact 2) so she's at least a "double fig" and therefore very hard to beat. There is plenty of pace on, but she usually races forward so from the outside post in a big field she'll need some luck and she has not gone the 9f before, I'm not "chalking out" but looking elsewhere, and it will be interesting to see what price she actually starts at. In fact I have 6/1 the field with Gazelle winner #11 My Miss Sophia (Castellano/TAP) on top on my ratingsa par with the fav. Altough she doesn;t look likely to get the soft lead again here, I'll have something on her if she's an overlay [and an omen bet for my old secretary]. I also like Rosalind, Sugar Shock, Kiss Moon and Thank You Mary Lou rounding out my main chances. Despite the old adage 'never back a favorite trying something for the first time', the "double fig" was once again too good, and the even money fav Untapable beat Sophia convincingly. The exacta paid 10/1. Sophia started 5/1 and paid $4.40(to $2) for the show, and only 4.20 for the place!

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